[Radar_O'Reilly]

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Somehow this discussion reminds me of an example from "Gambling Theory and other Topics". On page 12 Mason writes about rolling a dice 10000 times for $1 and then 1 time for $1 million. Statistians will tell you that there was only one roll, because the results are all clustered around that one big bet.

Fast tournaments are similar. From my limited experience I can tell that people are playing the biggest pots when their M is between 5-10. Statistically those 20 minutes when the stack is still in the green zone at the beginning of the tournament shouldn't matter.

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First, your stack in the Friday night Orleans tournament is in the green zone for a full hour, not 20 minutes. That's what makes it a good fast tournament. One of the things The Poker Tournament Formula does is provide players with a formula for choosing tournaments where you can genuinely obtain an advantage. There is no point in playing crapshoot tournaments if you intend to make money. All you will do in crapshoot tournaments, over time, is lose the house fee.

Second, in addition to agreeing with BigA/K's response, I want to add that you are misunderstanding the significance of when bad players are getting in most of their action. Good fast tournament players, who have built big stacks early, will tend to be in the green zone for most of the time in the tournaments they play. The whole point of optimal tournament strategy is to use a strategy that will get you into the green zone and keep you there.

When you are routinely playing in the green zone, while the fish are waiting to get in their action at times when they have no edge, you are going to dominate.

So, I will actually agree with you that the fish, who are the majority of players in fast tournaments, get in the bulk of their action at 5-10M. That is precisely why they are fish. You are right, for fish any action in the green zone is statistically insignificant. Good players, by contrast, make most of their money in the green zone. The green zone is where they are getting in their statistically significant action.