Re: SSNL Common Spots #1
[ QUOTE ]
Why complete 99
Turn the question around. Why raise 99? There are two big reasons. One, we have a good made hand. Two, everybody else seems pretty weak, and a raise now could either take down the pot now or give us enough FE to follow it up with a lot of CBs and take it down on the flop.
We have a good made hand, sure, but it's a hand with showdown value. Not a lot of big-pot value, unless we improve to a set or better. In some cases we can improve and still not be a great big-pot hand, like when we make a 1-card straight. Think about the sorts of hands that limped in to the pot. Probably high cards, naked aces, smaller pairs and connectors. If the flop comes and pairs one of the high cards, we'll regret having raised PF. If it comes rags, we bet and everyone folds, we won the minimum with our good made hand. Sure we won, and that's fine. But they were correct to fold, and that's not fine.
If we just complete PF, we put ourselves in a position to get to the showdown for the minimum if that's what we want, or start building a pot if that's what we want. But we can wait until the flop to make the choice. Raising PF starts building the pot before we really know what our equity situation will be, which means we are mostly raising for flop FE. If that's so, then 99 might as well be 72.
[/ QUOTE ]
Grunch,
Very interesting post, but I'm raising here because I want and expect the very bad UTG+1 player to call and the TAG button to fold. I'd much rather play HU on the flop against a bad player than 3-way against a good player and a bad player, especially OOP.
Also, I don't think you give enough weight to the raise being purely for value. You say "If the flop comes and pairs one of the high cards, we'll regret having raised PF." Well, no, not really. If UTG+1 calls with KT or whatever he's a 2:1 dog to outflop me, so I'm very happy with his call even if he does outflop me.
For the record I would:
1) AJo - raise
2) A4o - fold
3) K5s - fold
4) 99 - raise
5) 76s - in this situation, probably raise, more usually complete.
6) J8o - fold
7) 73o - fold
Cheers
c
|