Re: A8s river decision 3-6 bellagio
mike,
on the flop you're getting 15:1 and will be laying 8.5:1 against hands behind you if you raise. you wont be folding out any Ks and any pairs that would come along for one (and not raise) will likely fold to a turn raise when they would have folded on the flop shoudl you choose that line.
the pot is big and you have a large number of outs. you would like to grow this pot on the flop since K4 and 44 are very unlikely combinatorically and KK is the only real hand that has you in significant trouble and only 1 person is likely to have that hand. if you call and somebody raises behind you and it's called to you id 3 bet now b/c of the chances you are dealing with disbelieving flop peelers who may now feel stuck.
while you have likely increased the chances of your being in some danger, i dont think that warrents not 3betting when it comes back for a raise.
further, by just calling this flop and showing down the hand, the better players in the game will be less likely to think you do what you do (go mad bets in position w/ draws) since you didn't even put in 2 bets on a favorable nut flush draw w/ overcard draw 7 ways.
the real danger w/ just calling though is letting a weaker hand come in that would have folded for 2 but now pairs up and sees a showdown. but that is a mighty big parlay and i think the benefits to just calling this flop outweigh the costs.
on the turn if the sb bets again NOW you should raise. this looks like a very strong hand and you are now quite a bit more likely to fold out a K than the almost nil chance of that happeneing on the flop. you've managed to lay way worse odds given the bet size increase and have misguided the table as to your holding.
in a 3/6 lineup, id say the flop call turn raise line is probably best.
Barron
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