Re: chess or poker
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One thing is clear, an amateur like Moneymaker could have never won a big chess tournament, probably not even a small one. In chess the better player has a much bigger edge, both in the short and in the long run.
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You're confusing variance with skill differential. To close the gap, consider if Moneymaker played Farha 2 billion times head's up, who would win the vast majority? Farha's edge is as large as an FM's against an amateur.
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