[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like villian's line is something like 88-QQ, AcJx/AcQx/AcKx/AxKc. Perhaps AXcc or AK(no clubs). . . .

Problem is that your a coinflip favorite against the AcJx/AcQx, and a slight coinflip dog to AcKx. 99 made a set against you, so you're only really beating 88/TT/JJ, but you're only a 3:2 favorite (well, 1.3:1) against any pair with a club in their hand . . .NOt to mention drawing virtually dead to AXcc. . . .

(Your opponent is about 55% to have a club in their hand.)

THe pot is laying 1.6:1 . . . . don't have time to do the extended math, but it certainly isn't screaming for a call.

If you fold, you've still got 119K and will be 2nd CL with an M of 18. If you call and lose, you're crippled. If you call and win, you'll have about 280K in chips.

This seems a fairly close decision, so I'd make it based on how I was doing at the table. If I'm beating the table up, then this is an easy fold. If this has become a very tough table and my stack is dwindling down, then I might call and go for the home run here . . .

You said you've been doing very well, so easy fold . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can remove AQ and QQ from his likely holdings. KK reraises Preflop leaving AK, 10-JJ. Since you have stated there is ~50% he does not have a club, he is likely drawing to a 2 outer....easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP said hero is being aggressive and has won some recent pots . . . thus I think villian's calling range of hero's RR is much larger. I agree that KK RR's here.

I don't see why we take AQ out even if he is tighter, there's still 8 card combinations that make AQ, 3 of which either have a flush draw or the made flush. . . .

As for drawing to a 2 outer, only 88/TT/JJ are drawing to a 2 outer if they don't have a club. If they do, they have 11 outs against us . . . and with the pairs, 50% of the card combinations have a club. So if we just put him on 88/TT/JJ, then 50% of the time he has 11 outs and 50% of the time he's got 2. So we're just better than a 2.3:1 favorite over this range . . . .

But of course, his hand range is much larger than that . . . and includes AA as well (I might play AA slow once hero's RR had narrowed the field and put a lot of money in the pot). On this flop, AA without a club isn't going to waste much time, and AA with a club could also be pushing because it looks like a bluff with AK or a scared play by TT/JJ/QQ.

So somtimes, we'll be drawing to 2, maybe even 1 out ourselves . . .