[stremba]

First of all, I'm not sure how you get 16% for your chance of winning. The easiest way to calculate your winning chances are to calculate the chance that a six won't hit which is (44/47)*(43/46) = 87.5%. Therefore, your chance of winning is 12.5% or about 1 in 8, not 1 in 6. Furthermore you ignore the fact that if your 6 doesn't hit on the turn that you will probably be forced to pay more than 100. As an extreme example, suppose one of your opponents pushes and the other folds. You would then no longer have correct pot odds to continue your draw and you would be forced to fold. Therefore, your winning chance may not even be 12.5%, but rather something lower. The correct way to evaluate this (ignoring implied odds for the moment) is that you have three outs on the turn and there are 47 possible cards that could come on the turn. Therefore, the chance of your hitting your 6 on the turn are 3/47 or in terms of odds, a bit more than 12:1 against. It's possible that implied odds would make this a valid call, but if your opponents really are weak, you aren't likely to be able to get much from them should you hit your draw. It's also possible that one of your opponents is slowplaying a boat, in which case you are drawing dead. All in all, I think a fold is correct here.