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The collection in the Bellagio $100/$200 game is $8 (or $7?) for each player dealt into the hand. So, that's $72 if the table is full up at 9 players. This amount is taken out of the hand on the first hand of the dealer down that sees a flop (regardless of pot size). Thus, if you steal the blinds and there is no flop seen, the collection moves on to the next hand. If you aren't dealt into the hand, you still pay the $8 for collection.

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Ah, if it had been pot-size dependent, I was going to suggest only considering hands that go to the turn.

I get a surprising answer, so there's a good chance I'll be editing this post in the next hour (edit: ok I think I found it).

There are more intense ways to do this, but it should be pretty simple to get a good approximation, no? Just act as if it weren't a time pot and figure out your "natural" EV. I think that would be pretty good, maybe you disagree.

You can go to Pokertracker and get % of flop seen from BB

(1) (full_ring && BB && sawflop)/(full_ring && BB).
(2) Multiply by W$WSF.
(3) Multiply by .36 BB (i.e, $72).

My guess (I'm away from PT right now) is you will get something like 35% for the first part, and with .4 as W$WSF so

.35*.36*.40*200 = $10

So surprisingly I have that you're only paying $5 on this hand. Actually less than $10. I say "less than", because you will compensate by folding more hands and lowering that 30% figure. (If this makes your opponents steal more, you exploit this by playing your normal game and then you still do better than $5).

For your overall EV, you just add that to your winrate from the BB. Obviously the sum must be less than $100 or we're hosed.

I'm not sure if the original question is just for the hand, or more of a question of "how much am I screwed?" If the latter, you need to look ahead to the next hand, if this hand didn't see a flop. You take the % of hands that didn't see a flop (20% ?), and multiply that by your additional loss from the SB, where you use:

VPIPxW$WSFx.20 (i'd subtract 3% from VPIP)

I'm going to get lazy for now and suggest that future hands roughly offset what you save off the $10 by playing tighter, so my final answer is $10.

Of course there are more thorough ways to do all of this, but they are unnecessary if there are no objections. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]