[SixForty]

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Sierra, although I agree with you, how do you figure "more than 50% of the time"? Just by feel from playing? Or did you take a more objective approach when coming up with that?

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Sort of half and half. I just think of all the different hand ranges that a loose passive Villain is going to have on the river.

If Villain has a Q, you now chop with any other Q except AQ, Q7, and Q3. All 3 of those hands would give more action than that I think (each of those would probably bet out the flop) So I'm not concerned as much about losing to a Q.

If Villain has a 3, I also think you hear about that sooner. If Villain drew out on you with just a naked A, so be it. But I think there are very few hands that he's calling with A high all the way to the river on a non-draw friendly board. My biggest concern is A7 just drew out on you.

On the other hand, there's lots of hands that a loose passive is going to call with on this river that you are ahead of. Especially since he was in the BB and his initial starting hand range is most likely wider than it may otherwise be. He'll call on the end with any 7, from K7 right on down to 74. And he'll also call with any pocket pair. I think this range of hands that you beat will be higher than the range of hands that beat you.

So it's just a general objective approach, not an exact counting and weighting system of a hand range.

Hope that helps!