[gergery]

I'd have chk-raised the turn. as played, I check-fold the river. there just aren't enough hands he'll call the turn with but fold to a river bet with THAT you are behind to. if you bet 150 then he needs to fold a better hand 33% of the time, if you bet 300 then he must fold 50% of the time. neither of those seems likely given he called the turn. and keep in mind that some of the folds you will generate on the river with bet you would have won anyway (ie. worse suited connectors in spades) -- you can only count folds from hands you're behind to.

fwiw, game theory is way over-rated. sure, its nice to have optimal bluffing frequencies, and making sure you bet the same way with bluffs and monsters in weighted mixed strategy is well and good. But all that assumes your opponnets are paying attention. and that they'll be at the table long enough to see you act in severl different scenrios.

To paraphrase Barry Greenstein in a LiveattheBike episode, "don't worry about playing hands different ways to generate deception. Make the right play for the situation you are in. you'll get all the deception value you need by playing the same hands in the same situation in different ways because the opponent is different."

-g