Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
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I disagree that this is a textbook stop-n-go situation. Remember this guy has not played a hand in 2 orbits (20 hands). He is in third position, still fairly early. Any individual player has a 2.4% chance of having an overpair to us. The range originally given is the top 8% of hands. If that range is reasonable (and I think it is for a tight player) then there is a 30% chance that they have an overpair to our 99. This hardly qualifies as "pretty sure" that I have the best hand now. We are a dog to their range.
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We're simply 45% against that (tight) range. I don't see why anything else matters. Him having an overpair 30% of the time doesn't make our hand any worse than 45%.
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