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Old 07-20-2006, 11:33 AM
AceLuby AceLuby is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Rockin my new guitar instead of playing poker
Posts: 3,769
Default Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

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You might want to run some numbers before you call this terrible. First of all, you are not calling off 1/4 of your stack, you are investing 400 more chips, which is either 400/1952 or 400/2152 depending on whether the stack sizes are before or after blinds are subtracted. My play works better in the latter case but I think I can make a case that it is still superior to a stop and go in the former.

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600/2152 = 28%
400/1952 = 20%

Either case we have an M of ~10 here and we're going to put 3 of those in this pot PF leaving us w/ 7 BB's and 6.5 in the pot. Do you see why you have to push or fold now? We can't afford to play this for set value.

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Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!

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I doubt we're getting higher pairs to fold post flop getting 2:1 after a call PF and if they hit anything on the flop w/ high unpaired cards then they will definitely call. I think we only get hands we beat to fold post flop, which allows our opponents to play perfectly.
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