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Old 07-20-2006, 10:47 AM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 464
Default Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

I think people get too enamored with the "push, stopngo, or fold" mentality. You are playing against a presumably tight player with a solid hand. Suppose his range was as you said (From fairly early position, as he is, I might even think he is tighter, perhaps not including 88, or KQ). You are only dominated by an overpair, which make up somewhat less than half the hands he is raising with. My observations about tight players are:

1) They "expect" that since they have waited so long for a prime hand, that their hand "deserves" to win. How dare someone call their AK with 98s and outdraw them!

2) They are predictable post-flop. Partly because they are so tight preflop, they don't get a lot of practice with ambiguous situations post-flop. So they like to resolve the situation quickly postflop.

So I agree you have little or no fold equity. If nath (or any other LAG player) were the preflop raiser, I would not hesitate to reraise all-in preflop here. You are likely ahead of their range, and they may incorrectly fold hands like TJ or JQ that are coin flips against you. Against a tight player, why not just call preflop, with the following strategy post-flop?

1) if you hit a set on the flop, you are likely to stack your opponent. Check-raise the flop all-in. If checked behind on the flop, make a small probe bet on the turn, leaving enough behind to put yourself all-in on the river with another small bet.

2) If the flop comes A x x, pause for dramatic emphasis, then lead for about 600 and fold to a raise all-in. If they raise here, you are beat. You might get a higher pair to fold.

3) If the flop comes with two overcards to your 9s, check-fold.

4) If the flop comes with K x x or Q x x, most of their hands are going to miss the flop. Go all-in. You might get a JJ or TT to fold.

5) On any other flop, check, and watch. Remember, tight players want to resolve the hand as soon as possible. If they check, you almost certainly have the best hand. If they bet half pot or so, they likely only have overcards. If they bet full pot or more, they have an overpair and want to shut you out so you don't outdraw them. Raise a half-pot bet all-in, fold to a full pot or larger bet.
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