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Old 07-19-2006, 01:18 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 464
Default Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP

I thought I would run some numbers for hand 2. By going all-in you are wagering 1200 to win 1300 if no players call you, 2300 if you are called by one player, and 3300 if you are called by two players. I assume that really good hands would have reraised instead of calling, but only decent hands would make your call, so I leave out the "best" hands and only include reasonable calling hands for the rest.

One player calling: (34% equity required for breakeven here)

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.4133 % 32.92% 00.49% { 87o }
Hand 2: 66.5867 % 66.10% 00.49% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }


Equity if called in two places by same range (27% or better required in this case to break even):
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.7519 % 23.48% 00.28% { 87o }
Hand 2: 38.1201 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.1280 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }

If you assume that there is a 15% or greater chance of everyone folding, then the all-in is almost always profitable. If, on the other hand, you think there is a near-zero chance that everyone will fold and a substantial chance that at least two players will call your all-in, then the raise all-in is EV-.
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