Re: A bluff 400NL
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You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.
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No, reread the board. That's why this is the perfect river card for this.
This is a good spot for this play and AI is the way to go of course, not $150 or whatever.
FeltBelt, you're reasoning in this thread is awful and while it's great to debate different lines, being stubborn and condescending to one of the better posters on these forums isn't the way to do it.
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Tell me exactly which hands THIS PLAYER, not some theoretical player, will call $150 with but would fold for $300. That will tell you how much value the extra $150 or so of the all in has. If the answer is "well *maybe* one or two hands he'd call $150 for but fold to an all in", then you do the math to figure out the EV of the all in vs the 1/2 PSB.
Tight passives like to fold and when they call big-ish river bets (in both pot terms and absolute dollar terms) they usually have the bettor crushed. Hero can give this player a good opportunity to fold without risking his entire stack. So against this player, it's the play to make. But hey, double the risk when half would do if you really want. It's your money.
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