Re: how right do things have to go to win? a final table story.
I do win flips/suck out most of the time when I go deep (pulled a 5/95 on somebody to get to one of my FT's last night...that's a first, though*), but sometimes you manufacture your own luck.
Example: Big stack raises and you call with KQ. KQ is close to a monster 5 handed if you had 8 BB, but there's a microstack in with you and you have 20 BB. I probably call here too, but I might push and I might fold depending on how tight he's been.
So you call and flop a 12 outer on an ace high board. I would rather not bet here because if I'm checkraised it's for my stack as a dog with the microstack cheering the hand on. Instead, I'll check and maybe CR the overcaller, or fold to a bet/CR, or do something else that involves seeing a turn. If I am playing for my stack in this situation it will be as the aggressor, and maybe someone will make a big mistake like laying down QJ.
*Or, you can get your chips in with top pair vs. a made flush and runner runner a boat. That works, too.
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