[Robk]

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Well, there are more things to think about too. A bluff-raise occurs less often, but it also gets opponent to spew more bets when it happens, partly because IMO a bluff-raise is more likely to follow through on the turn. Also, if opponent has caught any piece of the board, then betting out is probably better

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i agree with everything you said in this post, but i dont think these things matter as much as others. the most basic thing is the bb is more than a 2:1 favorite to have no pair, so that situation is right off the bat more important.

in that situation checking is better imo. the most likely situation by far is that if you bet he folds, but if you check he bets. so checking is 1 sb better there. occasionally he would have bluff raised and checking is a little more than one sb worse. also occasionally he would have folded to your bet but checks and catches a pair making checking 2+ sb better. of course also the rare times where he would have folded to your bet but wins the pot etc.

adding it all up i think his tendency to bluff raise would have to be unusually high to warrant betting.

in the case where he has a pair i agree that betting is better. but not that much better. his made hands are unlikely to be strong since an ace flopped and he would tend to raise with an ace preflop. against weaker hands i think how you play matters less since you wont be getting much action no matter what you do.