[FoxwoodsFiend]

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nath,

with an m of 3, your range seems totally off to me. He only plays 21% of hands? yeah right!

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Against an UTG raise? If he was the open raiser, he might be pushing virtually anything. It seems like he might push more, and against me, he probably should, but I couldn't think of a better range to assign him. I suppose you could stretch it into even weaker aces, some of the suited kings, and such, but I still don't think he's taking, say, 98s, and pushing it over my raise.

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Nath,

If you've been as active as you say you've been, I can't see SB not pushing 89s given all the dead money from the blinds and antes and your wide range.

Or at least, obviously people make all sorts of awful folds but the amount of crazy action I've seen shortstacks give from the BB leads me to think you're seriously overestimating how narrow his hand range is.

P.S. Just saw my post was mainly already covered. What I did realize in reading after the post I just quoted was that you seem to be really defensive and pointing to how you've had a lot of success. I've also had a lot of success in tournaments, albeit in a smaller sample size than you have had.

I, to put it mildly, do some batso nutty [censored]. I often get it in with the worse of it, I make crazy resteals, etc. What does this have to do with your post? It's that when I'm running well and going up against 33 and unwittingly getting coinflips with junk, busting a shortish stack's AA with my 67o, and otherwise doing really well with my eccentric plays I feel that I'm playing like a god, understanding the game better than my opponents, and playing for the final table.

When I run my 58s into QQ and don't get there a few times in a row, I start to question just how profitable some of my nuttier moves are and whether I was just running very well. And that's the problem with MTTs: it's possible that you have many moves that are -cEV up your sleeve like I probably do. But in tournaments all it takes is 3 or 4 big suckouts plus a few races/dominating situations and now you've got an insane chip stack and are easily crushing the field.

And that's kind of the point: it's easier to be results-oriented in MTTs than any other form of poker (Badugi/Chinese Poker/2-7 notwithstanding) because the positive effects of getting lucky in a particular hand get so distorted/inflated by the top-heavy pay-outs and the importance of having a big stack.

So basically, when you respond with "but look at my results" or "screw the math, I'm talking about a general way of thinking that's not specific to this hand" what I read is a fuzzy way of thinking with only the barest, most abstract methodological justification for a move that is almost definitely reckless and I wonder how many more moves like that you pull.

I should obviously clarify that previous to this thread I had no idea you played tournaments at all, so I obviously have no insight into how you play, but I'm just responding to the general tone of your posts.