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Old 07-16-2006, 10:16 PM
ilya ilya is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Upchucking the boogie
Posts: 7,848
Default Re: SSNL [cheese] thread: JULY (nc)

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, thats what I'm saying.

He played it fine, I paid him off. At the end of the day he got odds on his float, because I was too blind not to push. Had I not paid him, his play would have been -EV, but as it was he came off +EV.

At $2 for the float, he needed to scoop $16.80 by the river to make it +EV, and I gave him $25.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't give him anywhere near $25. Even if he makes his hand on the turn, you redraw to beat him on the river anywhere from 5% to 35% of the time. If you always shove turn and he always folds UI and always calls with 2pair+,

he loses $2 40 times

wins $23.50 2 times (when he hits a ten)
wins $17 2 times (when he hits the 8c or 8s)
wins just $8 the 1 time he hits the 8d

so his average win when he does improve on the turn is just $17.80.

His net expectation on the play is just $0.20, and that's provided he always gets your whole stack when he improves & never puts another dime in when he doesn't.