Re: SSNL [cheese] thread: JULY (nc)
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I agree, thats what I'm saying.
He played it fine, I paid him off. At the end of the day he got odds on his float, because I was too blind not to push. Had I not paid him, his play would have been -EV, but as it was he came off +EV.
At $2 for the float, he needed to scoop $16.80 by the river to make it +EV, and I gave him $25.
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You didn't give him anywhere near $25. Even if he makes his hand on the turn, you redraw to beat him on the river anywhere from 5% to 35% of the time. If you always shove turn and he always folds UI and always calls with 2pair+,
he loses $2 40 times
wins $23.50 2 times (when he hits a ten)
wins $17 2 times (when he hits the 8c or 8s)
wins just $8 the 1 time he hits the 8d
so his average win when he does improve on the turn is just $17.80.
His net expectation on the play is just $0.20, and that's provided he always gets your whole stack when he improves & never puts another dime in when he doesn't.
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