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Old 07-16-2006, 12:03 AM
notevenhere notevenhere is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 166
Default Re: Allin every time right?

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This statement is false. And I think that understanding it intuitively is as important as the math. Since we have a better hand than the button, every dollar that he puts into the pot is +EV for us. That is the very nature of having a better hand in an all-in situation. If the tables were turned and you had QQ vs. the button's AA, you would want him to fold intuitively. But the real reason why his fold is better for you is because the amount of extra money being put into the hand is more than offset by the decreased odds of you winning the hand once this extra player is involved in the hand.

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Intuition really sucks here. Intuition pretty much always sucks. Which is why we take the time to do the math.

To say that the dollar amount that button puts in is irrelevent is completely ignoring the math.

Consider this specific hand we are discussing. Now imagine that instead of having commit ~$12 extra dollars to go all-in, button has only 3 cents left to go all in.

Do you want the button to:

a) Fold and hero to have an 82% chance of winning a ~$55 pot.
b) Call and hero to have a 67% chance of winning a ~$55 + 3 cents pot?

Obviously you want scenario A.

Now, nobody in their right mind folds if its just 3 cents to go to move all-in. However, I am using this an example to illustrate that the amount of money matters.

What your "intuition" is forgetting, is that any time an extra player is in the hand, we are less likely to win it. Unless he puts up enough money to justify denting my winning percentage, I want him out.

[ QUOTE ]
I already stated very clearly that I am all-in before the flop every single time with this hand. I'm not arguing for calling before the flop. I am only saying that we want both opponents to call our all-in.

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Again, we have proven mathematically that button folding is EV neutral. I don't see why this is still being argued.

Where do you get the impression that I think you are arguing for calling? I am disagreeing with you that we want button to call. We both agree to push the flop. I just happen to know mathematically, that its EV neutral whether button calls. So I don't care if the button calls or not. You want him to call because you think it is EV+.
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