Re: The Freakonomics of Tournaments: A Preview (74s UTG at final table
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I haven't read the whole thread, but I think your play here is clearly EV- tho maybe not by a huge margin depending on table conditions.
You're making the wrong comparison: it isn't play this hand or fold. It's play this hand or play the next one. Since you can't profitably play every hand without your opponents changing strategies.
I'm sure you have lots of tournament success, and I'm sure its despite this play not because of it.
-g
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Yeah I think this is a key point. You can't just raise every hand until forever. Even if this somehow is +EV (which if it is, it will be slight), every time you do this you make it harder to get respect for your future raises. I'd save my raises here for a spot where Im not first to act with 74s. You can try to be a bully while at the same time making it look somewhat realistic. Once you get looked up with 74s in EP, you are in danger of getting very little respect for the rest of the event.
The above would all be meaningless if the play on its own was somehow clear +EV, but it's extremely debatable to begin with. It's much better if you can pick spots where the BB isn't so short and the bigger stacks are in the blinds and etc etc. You basically have a fantastic situation where you will have tons of great stealing oppurtunities, and you choose to attempt to steal in perhaps the least favorable situation possible, one which could also ruin your credibility for future steals if you are caught. Your standing is so good that it isn't such a terrible play, but I really don't like it.
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