[chesspain]

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I just don't see that happening. Even if you're 95% sure you're beat, even then, it's not a big mistake to call. It doesn't cost you that much, only a tiny fraction of a bet.

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Yes, it is a mistake to call a 9:1 bet if you believe you are a 1 in 20 dog. Of course, it's probably not a big mistake, since calling or folding wrong on the end in one specific pot is rarely a big mistake. But the mistakes will add up over time on one's bankroll.



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And come on, can you honestly be 95% sure here? Can you ever be?)

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One can never be sure of anything. However, always calling when the pot is offering at least 9:1 because "one never knows" is a pretty big leak.