Nath -

Great post, my friend. I remain a doubter, unfortunately, but this is definitely a well-thought out topic worth disussing.

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You only considered one situation (the bb pushes)

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This was the first thing that I noticed.

Oh, and this

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There are some problems with your math. The BB has already posted the blinds, then he raises to 17617, which lead you to double count. So the amount you can win 23267 is wrong. I guess it should be 17617+1500+1050=20167. If this is the case though, the converter messed up the final pot size. Because, 20167+17617=37784. Hope you can sort this out. This is a pretty small error though and won't effect your bottom line much, just thought you should know.

It wasn't totally clear in your post, but the 32% (i think 31.1% if my correction is right) you estimated also applies to the short stacks. Though since you would be getting odds to call the short stacks, it might be slightly larger.

So what range would it take to reraise you 32% of the time, well, there are 5 players left (not including BB, which we already took into account). So, if they are equally likely to push (which they aren't, but you can fool with that). Then on average they need to push 32/5 = 6.4% of hands, so if everybody pushes 77+,AQ+,AJs. You break even. It seems likely they'll push more often than that. Plus, someone could just call. I don't think you'll be able to play this hand out of position against someone with a much stronger hand without it being -EV, which may hurt your bottom line too. Also, against this range you are like a 2.7 to 1 dog, so the effect from above doesn't count since you are better off folding than calling if the other short stacks ranges are actually this tight.

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is a great post from wagon30 that is worth discussing more.

edit: And not that it affects anything terribly, but isn't the starting pot amount 5550, not 5650? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]