Re: The Freakonomics of Tournaments: A Preview (74s UTG at final table
I ran some numbers with these assumptions:
You will be pushed by the BB 21% of the time.
You will be pushed by the SB 10% of the time.
You will be pushed by the button 10% of the time.
These seem reasonable assumptions that are slanted towards giving you chips. On average, I figured that you will win 1400 chips (less than 0.5 BB), given these assumptions. These ignore the times that:
Two of the short stacks push (which I estimate will happen about 4% of the time).
Big stack reraises
Big stack calls with position.
Also, the vast majority of the time that you win, you increase your chips from 156k to 161k. Every time that you lose, your chips decrease from 156k to about 135k.
I think if you will catch your breath on occasion and actually fold, you will be even more successful than you have been.
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