Re: whore this, ubersucker
Increasing the bet size, and increasing the risk of ruin INCREASES EV. The reason? You often bust out before the WR is completed, which means less wagering on a -EV game.
Example:
Say you have a 100+100 bonus, with a $1400 WR, which has to be played on a 3% house advantage game which either doubles you up on you lose, so it doubles you 48.5% of the time.
Bet small, with say 0% risk of ruin, your EV is $100 - $42 [loss due to the game] = $58 EV
Bet $200, $400, then $800, and you will cash out $1600:
0.485*0.485*0.485 = 11.4% of the time
1600 * 11.4% = $182.53. or $82.53 EV
Thus, in this case, you gain $24.53 EV by betting big. Note that the last $800 bet here didn't increase EV at all, since then we'd have busted with the WR completed. It was just for mathematical simplicity.
|