Re: 2nd best pair top kicker and BDSD - whats your action?
Suggested Play
I would have been inclined to raise preflop in an attempt to isolate the UTG limper.
As played, I would fold the flop. I expect that you are behind UTG and that you would need to improve your hand to win.
There is also the possibility that if you call the flop bet, that the pf raiser will raise, which would worsen your pot odds and chances of winning.
Estimating Your Outs
To estimate your outs, you need to consider the hand ranges for your opponents.
Lets say that UTG has Kx (excluding AK). With the exception of KT and K6, you have 5 outs against most of this range. So with your bdsd, lets round up your outs against UTG to 5.
Lets say that the pf raiser has a range of AA-TT,AK & AQ. The total number of possible combinations for him to have these hands are 40.
Next calculate your outs against this range of hands and multiply by the number of possible combinations for each hand:
So AA = 3 comb. * 2 outs = 6. KK = (3*0) = 0. QQ = (6*5) = 30. JJ = (6*5) = 30. TT = (1*0) = 0. AK = (9*2) = 18. AQ = (12*5) = 60.
Add the above numbers, and divide by the number of hand combinations for this range, to get a weighted average for your outs:
Weighted average = (6+0+30+30+0+18+60)/40 = 144/40 = 3.6 outs.
Add say 0.5 outs for your bdsd and you have approx. 4 outs against the pf raiser.
As you have 2 opponents, its probably fair to estimate that you have no more than 4 outs against both of them.
Compare your 4 outs to the immediate pot odds that you are being offered to call on the flop of 8.5:1, and you dont have enough outs to call.
If you call and the pot is raised behind you by the preflop raiser the odds you are effectively receiving to call both bets (assuming UTG also calls) becomes: 11.5 to 2 or 5.75 to 1. Now calling becomes even worse.
Obviously you dont have time to do the above calculations, while you are playing, but that is roughly how I would do the maths.
If you also plugged estimated hand ranges into Poker Stove for both your opponents, I would expect you to come up with similar results.
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