Re: I Keep Dreaming of This WSOP Hand...
I think one factor which we are all missing is the online qualifier's mindset.
How many of them do you think want to go home on the first hand? After building it up for months and months and months and finally sitting down, do you seriously think many of them would feel comfortable reraising here with much less than a set? MAYBE QQ-AA, but in all liklihood he has hit his hand, is trying to make sure he doesn't get drawn out on by check-raising here.
If you are talking about cEV, well, maybe it's close against a range here. Maybe he has lots of draws a certain amount of time.
BUT.... are you ready to think about this hand for the rest of your life after you put your entire main event life on the line with one pair?
If so, then great. I think it's marginal, and using the PartyPoker T-Shirt as an excuse to make it sort of +cEV is just asking for disaster.
1) Random online pro doesn't want to go home first hand
2) You have 160BB's and can play tons more poker and put the pressure on others in much better situations
3) You have one pair against a random opponent who just called a reraise under the gun and check-raised you on the flop.
I'd fold to the check-raise, and I'd probably check behind on the flop. This is based on the fact that I would want to experience more poker in the tournament, but in general I don't think it's a bad line so early in a deep-stack tourney.
Brad
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