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Old 06-27-2006, 05:50 PM
Nielsio Nielsio is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 10,570
Default Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away

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I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

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Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips

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AK and T9 don't play like this, ever.
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