Re: The envelope problem, and a possible solution
Dear, PTB. You state that the place where argument 1 breaks down is at the part where it assumes 50% probablility. However, unless the probabilities now take on specific values, switching will still be either +EV or -EV.
If this is true, then that leaves a bit of a strange situation. I could switch, and then after I did, switch again on the basis of the exact same reasoning, and then again, and again, and in the end I'd have to be rich.
This is basically stating what has been stated before, argument 1 would create +EV situations from both ends of the switch.
How do you reason your perspective deals with this problem?
@BBB, thank you as well for your elaborate explanation. As far as I can see my reply to PTB is also valid as a response to your post and I ask you the same thing.
If I missed something in your post that would show that the above does not relate well to your story, please let me know.
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