Re: (109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post
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There's a small chance he's trapping. He could have been distracted, he could have wanted you to think he has a hand so you don't push him off... he could just be a major donk. Who knows? Either way, I'm never folding here and I'm always pushing. If he has an overpair, we're still a 70/30 favorite.
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You're missing the point. At this stage of the tournament chip values and real money values are dramatically different. Your equity if you fold might be 30%. If you win your equity might go up to 40% (this may be high since most of the time you win your opponent will fold). If you lose your equity is 0. (I am just throwing out these numbers, they are probably off a little but they serve to make a point) With these numbers you would need to win the hand over 75% of the time just to break even. Your 70/30 edge is costing you money.
Another point. The best result of this hand is that you call the flop bet, and the opponent checks it down. You are the big blind in an unraised pot. You have position. Your opponent has no idea what you have. To think that he is just going to keep firing chips at the pot if you call is mistaken. He might, but I think there is a good chance he'll check it down which is exactly what you want.
Paul
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