Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
it depends on how good you are +how long you can play. maintaining a good winrate 8 hrs a day (56 hour week) not counting meal breaks etc... for 30 days straight is going to be very tough for almost anyone.
to make 40K with 8 hours of poker a day=4000 hands per day (I think, I'm the last full ring player alive) 4000x30=120,000 hands, you need to run at 3.33PTBB per 100 hands, if you would be at 600NL the whole time. Assumeing you need to win a bit at other limits first, you probably need closer to 4.5 or 5 PTBB/100 at 600NL.
I would take the easy 25K, which has close to a 100% chance of happening as opposed to the 40K, which would need a 62.5% or greater chance for it to be +EV. I'd say its pretty thin, but my sanity would make it worth it to take the $25K bet, unless you are one of the best players on here.
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