Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
OK, here's one thing that I'm sure we can agree on: if he's willing to 3bet the turn with a set, he's obviously willing to 3bet the turn with any straight: 78, or any Q. A straight is better than 3 of a kind. Thus, if he's willing to go nuts with a set or two pair, he's obviously willing to go nuts with 78 or any Q. Thus, his possible hands are:
QJ, which he can have 9 different ways (3 unseen Q's, 3 unseen J's)
Q9, 9 ways
Q8, 12 ways
78, 16 ways
total: 46
versus
TT, 3 ways, one on the river
99, 3 ways
88, 3 ways
T9, 6 on the river
JT, 6 on the river
QT, 6 on the river
That's 27.
If we assume we're not chopping, we're ahead by a substantial margin. We need to raise this river. Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?
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