[Richas]

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You "reckon" we're 50/50. OK. Why? Put villain on an explicit range of hands and prove me wrong.


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1. You really think a set or two pair is 3betting that turn?

2. You really think it's impossible for him to have just a Q here? I think QJ and Q8 are pretty reasonable holdings for him.

Did you see Burning_K's math? He seems to think that we're about 2:1 to be ahead here.

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1) Yes - given that he capped the flop I can see him capping the turn against an aggressive opponent figuring that either he is ahead or he still has draws for a boat.

what I don't see is a lower str8 capping both the flop and the turn - also he didn't cap the turn hero did. He capped the flop - what hand that we beat did he have on the flop?

2)Not impossible just unlikely - less likely than a hand that beats us.

3)Yes I saw Burning K's maths. I confess to some ignorance as to how pokestove allocates probabilities to the hands given a range - is it likelihood of being dealt? If so I think that not only is the range off - I can't see anything less than an open ended str8, a made str8, 2 pair or trips capping the flop, I doubt the ignorant end caps it either.

I also think you need to rerun it for the reraise scenario, what has it got then - it certainly is not 60/40 equity.

The ev choice is call - essentially neutral - call is a no brainer here or raise - so far 8 posters here say call, 7 raise. I just can't see what proportion of the time villain having a lower str8 can justify this raise given that the boat reraises us. We either get called with some chance of winning or we get reraised and we are forced to call pretty certain we are beaten hoping we are chopping. This feller bet into someone who capped the turn - do you seriously think he is doing this with just the Q when the board paired - if he had the Q only he wants to see a cheap showdown and would expect a raise.

Anyway, sorry for being a cheeky newbie, no doubt I am wrong I just don't see how the extra $1 raise is +ev and given your greater experience maybe you could explain it - in particular how the hand we beat caps the flop, reraises the turn and still bets at us on the river once we capped the turn.