[Burning_K]

I came up with this mainly for Hero's decision on the river. Hopefully I can get some feedback on the EV stuff (basically just if it's correct or not).

Hand range for villain:
(Considering that on the River he most likely has a straight or full house and also hands that might explain his flop and turn actions)

Full house or better hands:
88, 99, TT, T8s, T9s, TJ

Straight hands:
78s, Q7s, Q8s, Q9s, QTs, QJ, QK, AQ,

57 combos.
33 Hero beats.
20 Hero loses.
4 Split pot.

Equity:
Hero - 60.5%
Villain - 39.5%
(Stove results with hand range - Hero 61.5% Villain 38.5%)

Pot is 19BB at River.

If SB bets and Hero raises (SB calls) then EV is:
(0.6 x 21) - (0.4 x 2) = 11.8

If SB bets and Hero calls then EV is:
(0.6 x 20) - (0.4x1) = 11.6


Questions:
1. How does those numbers look?
2. What do I do if I want to figure in SB 3-betting on the River? Would I have to estimate the probability of him 3-betting and the probability of that 3-bet meaning I'm beaten?
Then work out the EV and average it from the original 'Hero raises SB calls' EV?

Example:

I estimate that SB will 3-bet 60% of the time and ALSO (now I think about it) that the above thinking for Hero raising SB's river bet is not correct because if SB just calls my raise then it means that I'm more likely to be ahead (like, a huge amount of the time). So if he calls my raise then we'll get rid of all his winning hands except for maybe the KQ hands to split leaving us with 4 draws for him and 33 losing combos meaning I win the pot 90% of the time and split 10%.
(0.9 x 21) + (0.1 x 10.5) = 18.9 + 1.05 = 19.95BB's EV 40% of the time.

I estimate that SB will 3-bet 60% of time (40% with the hands that beat me from his range and equity and 20% with a smaller straight, so when he 3-bets I call and will win 34% of those times, lose 66%:

SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3bets:
24 in pot, 2 to call.
(0.34 x 24) - (0.66 x 2) = 6.84 EV.

So to summarize, If Hero raises SB's river bet:

SB 3-bets 60% of the time and Hero's EV is 6.84 and 40% of the time (when he calls Hero's raise) Hero's EV is 19.95.
So does this mean:
(0.4 x 19.95) + (0.6 x 6.84) = 12.1BB's EV?


Question 4. Who thinks this was a massive waste of time?


Oh yeah, and to answer OP's question. If the numbers above are right I'd raise the river and call a 3-bet.