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Old 06-05-2006, 01:29 PM
The Funky Llama The Funky Llama is offline
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Default Re: Interesting 20 Hand Against Pro

I think he will rarely bluff or bluffraise this river since he knows you are usually intent on showing down after you check the turn and/or after you bet the river. I guess you could have KJ/KQ/KT after checking the turn and he might be able to bet the river with JQ or KT or something and get you off your hand, but he probably wouldn't because your range is so heavy in ace highs.

Anyway, it seems the optimal river play depends on how often he has a weaker ace that will call and how often he has some sort of pocket pair or something (I'm pretty sure he will bet any pair if you check to him on the river). The key here is that his turn check usually means he does not have a pair, so his range is shifted towards weaker ace high hands like AT and AJ. I think there is a pretty good chance he calls the river with these hands.

Since there are way more weaker ace high hands than pairs (by combinations and by his play), it seems like betting is the play here, with check/fold being second best. If he raises I would call, but I dont think it will happen frequently enough to make check/fold better.

Check/call sucks imo because most good players will rarely bluff this river and if he had a bluffable hand like QT, it would often raise the flop as a semibluff.
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