Past results explained
My records are poorly documented from '96 (first lean prototype, pre-Excel) to '01. Bets were rarer and my bankroll was small, being both in college and not long out of college; however the system was a small and consistent winner throughout. The over/under system began in '02, teasers in '03 and money line underdogs in '04. The same basis of fundamentals has been used for pointspread games since '96 with many refinements since then.
In addition, I only started using online casinos last season so the vig taken in previous years was 10%. The volume of my bets would have been larger, pre-'04, had I been able to get favorable vig prices. Why? Because a bet occurs in the system when the probability of a bet winning exceeds the cost of the bet by a certain minimum threshhold. Such occurrences were rarer when the lower half of the threshhold was 52.38% (10% vig) than under other circumstances, many of them fluid (5% vig is 51.22% for ex.)
2002 +11.7 units among 106 units transacted (meaning absolute value sum of win and loss transactions); with 5% vig, +13.9 units among 104 units transacted
2003 +9.3 units among 201 units transacted; with 5% vig, +13.7 units among 196 units transacted
2004 +34.8 units among 580 units transacted
This is the best documentation I can do for you. I am posting my picks for free consumption and debate, you can do whatever you want with them, even call me a liar if you want. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But really, all I can say is I have total confidence in my ability to interpret mathematical NFL trends to forecast future results. Someday the levee of fundamentals that have worked well for so long may break down a bit, but I won't have any regrets about how I arrived at my intrepretations even if I end up in a losing season.
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