Re: 2005 U.S. Poker Championship
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I disagree. I seriously doubt that Juanda is folding AK or JJ preflop in that spot. In fact, with implied odds, he might call with virtually any pair in that spot to try and flop a set. (Although it's hard to tell what the odds are given EPSN's poor coverage of bet and stack sizes).
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lol, I really doubt that Juanda would re-raise with JJ/AK there against Haveson (who is a tight player). So, let's say he did re-raise with JJ/AK, I'm pretty sure he would fold JJ/AK once Haveson re-re-raised him preflop. I am pretty sure Juanda was not getting proper odds to call for a set since Haveson final raise preflop put in something like 40% of his stack.
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If Juanda only ever reraised preflop with AA/KK/QQ that would make him a pretty predictable player, which I guarantee you he's not. As for whether he folds AK/JJ or even a small pair to a 3rd reraise, a lot depends on the amount of the raise, in addition to the pot size and stack sizes at the time, which we don't really have enough information for (if you do, please fill it in).
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The reraise by Juanda was to around 2k because Haveson's re-reraise was to 6k.
There is one thing you are forgetting about this hand. Haveson has a huge reputation as being a VERY tight player. Juanda knows this and this early in the tournament you can be fairly sure he is tossing JJ/AK away to a re-reraise of that size from Haveson. With his reputation, it can only mean KK or AA.
Haveson is aware of his image, or should be, and played this hand like [censored]. If you asked Juanda, I bet he would say he would have put his bankroll on the line that Haveson has QQ-AA in that hand, with the most likely hand being KK.
So pretty much..when Haveson made that re-reraise and got called, he should have been VERY worried, since his image is way tight. Hell, he should have been worried when Juanda reraised his ass to 2k. Instead, Haveson dropped almost 40% of his stack into the pot preflop and dropped the rest in on the flop.
He could have played the hand very differently.
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