Re: Alan Goerhing
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YOU HAVE PLAYED AN INSIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF VERY HIGH VARIANCE LIVE MTTS. RESULTS ARE NOT A BIG FACTOR. Again, you are showing your complete lack of understanding.
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You're probably right. I was just reviewing my last 27 $10k+ NLH WPT events over the last 3+ years, and the random odds of cashing in the top 10% 11 times (or more), as I have, are about 35,390 to 1. Better wait for more data.
Oh, and the random odds of being chipleader for most of day 2 at the LAPC for the last three consectutive years are 142,217,071 to 1. Could be I am a pretty good chip accumulator, or maybe I was just "running good".
BTW, the random odds of winning two of these $10k+ NL WPT events was only roughly 270-1 against (explains why five people have done it).
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Alan, I don't think anyone disputes that you've had great results. The problem with using results as an indicator of poker skill is that they are almost always used as evidence after the fact when the luck has all been fleshed out. If you ran badly over this time(surely you realize it would have been more than possible for you to finish down over merely 27 events) it wouldn't indicate that you are a bad player. Results are more useful in poker when they back up predictions, not after they have already happened. It's overwhelmingly likely that you are a good player who has also run well - I don't think this should be taken as a slight to your abilities at all.
The way you are citing your results, how improbable your results are, and then saying you never said you were a good player all seems a little backwards. You don't need to prove anything to us. Poker is about making the right decisions. If you feel like you have made the right decisions on a hand to hand basis(with metagame considerations in mind in some cass), and other experts with extensive knowledge of your style agree, then you probably have. I just don't see why poker players always take offense when people point out that they have been fortunate. You have been very fortunate to have those results over 27 tournaments, and will be very fortunate to continue to have these results if you do. You may bust in your next 27 tournaments before cashing. If you do, it won't be indicative that you are a better or worse player than the first 27 tournament sample.
-James
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