[Str8Fish]

PART I- Raise the flop and go from there *Corrected for BDFD & Scenario 2

Range of hands for villain:
88 – (6 combinations) [8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] – calls down versus a raise
99 – (6 combos) - calls down versus a raise
TT – (3 combos, since hero has a T) – calls down versus a raise
JJ (1 combination – J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) – villain 3-bets
QQ-AA – (18 combos) – 3-bets

ATs (3 combinations… cannot make 4 since hero has T) – villain calls, c/f the turn ui
AJs ( 2 combos with J on flop, J with hero) – 3-bets
AQs (4 combos) – calls and c/f the turn ui
AKs (4 combos) – calls and c/f the turn ui

AJo (4 Aces * 2 Jacks = 8 combos – 2 combos suited = 6 combos) – 3-bets
AQo (4 Aces * 4 Q’s = 16 combos – 4 combos suited = 12 combos) – calls and c/f the turn ui
AKo (16 combos – 4 combos suited = 12 combos) – calls and c/f the turn ui

KQs (4 combos) – calls and c/f the turn ui


Scenarios for a raise on the flop:

1) Villain calls down versus a raise on the flop and does not improve

Hero contributes 3SB preflop. Raising the flop he puts in 2 more. Then he puts in 4 more SB on the turn and river. = 4.5BB contributed to win a pot that is 6.25SB preflop, 10.25SB flop, 14.25SB turn, 16.25SB river = 8.125BB final total pot.

2) Villain calls down versus a raise on the flop and does improve on the turn/river and c/r’s hero.

Hero contributes 3 SB preflop. Raise flop, 2 more SB. BB c/r turn after improving (1 BB). Hero folds, hero loses 3.5BB.

Hero contributes 3 SB preflop. Raise flop, 2 more SB. Hero bets turn (1BB). BB c/r river after improving, hero calls (2BB). Hero loses 5.5B.


3) Villain calls raise on flop and c/f the turn ui.

Hero contributes 3 SB preflop. Raise flop, 2 more SB. BB c/f the turn ui. We contributed 5SB to win a 6.25SB preflop, 10.25SB flop = 5.125BB pot.

4) Villain 3-bets a raise on the flop and we fold the turn ui.

Hero contributes 3 SB preflop. Raise flop, get 3-bet, 3 more SB. BB bets turn and we fold. = -3BB.

5) Villain 3-bets a raise on the flop and we improve on the turn and call down.

Hero contributes 3 SB preflop. Raises flop, gets 3-bet, 3 more SB. BB bets turn, we call (1 BB), BB bets river, we call (1 BB). Hero contributes 5BB to win a pot that is 6.25SB preflop, 12.25SB flop, 16.25SB turn, 20.25SB river = 10.125BB pot.



EV calculations

Ok, so according to our hand range, we have:

15 combinations that plan to call down versus a raise.
27 combinations that 3-bet a raise on the flop.
36 combinations that intend to call and c/f the turn ui.
Sum = 75 combinations total

EV(raise) =
[villain calls down versus raise]
[88-TT] 15/78 * (8.125BB won * (43/45*42/44) [odds villain doesn’t improve with his 2 outer] – 3.5BB * (2/45)[villain improves on turn] – 5.5BB * (43/45)[villain doesn’t improve on turn] * (2/44)[villain improves on river]) +

[villain 3-bets a raise]
[JJ] 1/78 * (-3BB * (42/45)[no T on turn] – 5BB * (3/45)[T on turn]) +

[QQ-AA] 18/78 * (-3BB * (40/45)[no T/J on turn] + 10.125BB * (5/45)[T/J on turn] * (42/44)[no 2 outer on river] – 5BB * (5/45)[T/J on turn] * (2/44)[villain hits 2 outer]) +

[AJo] 6/78 * (-3BB * (42/45)[no T on turn] + 10.125BB * (3/45)[T on turn] * (40/44)[no J or A on river] – 5BB * (3/45)[T on turn] * (4/44)[J or A on river]) +

[AJs] 2/78 * (-3BB * (42/45)[no T on turn] + 10.125BB * (3/45)[T on turn] * (40/44)[no J or A on river] – 5BB * (3/45)[T on turn] * (4/44)[J or A on river] – 5BB * (1/45)[T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on turn] * (8/44)[8 remaining [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]’s on river] * (1/2)[1 possible BDF’s out of 2 suited AJ’s]) +

[villain c/f the turn ui, c/r if improved]
[AQo,AKo] 24/78 * (5.125BB * (39/45)[villain hits none of his 6 outs] – 3.5BB * (6/45)[villain hits one of his 6 outs on turn] – 5.5BB * (39/45)[villain misses turn] * (6/44)[villain hits river]) +

[AKs, AQs, KQs] 12/78 * (5.125BB * (~30/45)[villain hits none of his 6 outs or any of his suit – 9 for [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 10 for [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] * (3/4 possible flushes) + 5.125BB * (9/45)[villain hits suit on turn] * (30/44)[villain misses 6 outs and his suit on river] * (3/4 possible flushes) – 3.5BB * (6/45)[villain hits one of his 6 outs on turn, none his suit] – 5.5BB * (39/45)[villain misses 6 outs turn] * (6/44)[villain hits river] – 5.5BB * (9/45)[villain hits suit on turn] * (8/44)[villain hits suit on river] * (3/4 possible flushes)]

= [88-TT] +1.35BB + [JJ] -0.04BB + [QQ-AA] -0.37BB + [AJo] -0.17BB + [AJs] -0.06BB + [AQo,AKo] 1.02BB + [AQs, AKs, KQs] 0.28BB

EV(raising flop) = +2.01BB


Parts II and III are still on their way.