[Solitare]

OK, there is a lot of back and forth over this 5-6% chance of a pair think that I think an example is in order.

Lets say its early in a tournament, full table, and UTG raises. What are the chances that he is raising with a pair?

First, let's put UTG on a range of hands -- AA-99, AKs-AJs, and AKo-AQo.

A pair can be made 6 ways, AA-99 represents 6 different pairs, so that is 6 * 6 = 36 hands

Two specific suited cards can be made 4 ways. AKs-AJs represents 3 different hands, so 3 * 4 = 12 hands.

Two specific unsuited cards can be made 12 ways. AKo-AQo represents 2 different hands, so 2 * 12 = 24 hands.

So UTG is raising with 72 different hands, of which 36 of them are pairs. This UTG raiser will have a pair 50% of the time.

This is not 5-6%. The 5-6% is swell and all, but means very little during actual play. What matters is the percentage of times the villain will have a pair WITHIN THE RANGE OF HANDS HE WILL PLAY.

And FGators, that percentage is not affected by whether or not you have a pair, if your pair is not in his range. Even if your pair is in his range, you are taking only a couple of hands out of his range, so the % is not affected that much.