Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
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wouldn't you say if I'm holding a pair and it's 5% likely to get one that most of the time the opponent will be pushing overcards so I'm ahead a small amount?
We all know it's more likely to be dealt two non paired cards than two paired cards...so if I have a pair and there is a push in front and there is one or no people behind me shouldn't I gamble here "hoping for a coin flip?"...even though we should never be hoping.
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That's too fuzzy. The math is easy. Just construct a pushing range for your opponent, and count the possible card combinations. There are 6 ways to be dealt any particular pair. There are 16 ways to be dealt any particular non-pair hand. So for example if your opponent has a pushing range of TT+ and AQ+, that's 5x6=30 possible pairs and 2x16=32 possible non-pairs. Fiddle with the pushing range and see how often you're up against a non-pair. Then, remember that when he has a non-pair, you're usually only slightly ahead, and usually crushed when he has a pair.
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