Re: Suckers play?
I got to thinking last night more about this hand. In fact, I couldn't get to sleep. Here's what I came up with.
Let's assume that you are, in fact 50% to have the best hand on the turn. What are your chances of retaining at least that much equity against his range on the river?
Not so good, as we will see.
Villian could have up to seventeen outs to improve to a better hand on the river! This is when he has a flush draw + overcards. He would have eight flush outs (the 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives you a boat), six overcard outs, and three jacks that counterfeit your hand.
If he's only got two overcards, then that's nine outs.
One overcard is still six outs.
So, if he's got a worse hand on the flop then:
FD + OC, 17 outs: 36% chance to improve, 86% chance you are beat on river.
OC, 9 outs: 19.5% chance to improve, 70% chance you are beat on river.
One OC, 6 outs: 13% chance to improve, 63% chance you are beat on river.
Only in the last scenario are you OK putting two bets in on the turn and river to win four, heads-up. You'll see at least two overcards here most of the time.
Now, when you are behind 50% of the time, you usually have only two outs to improve, which improve your chances of having the best hand when you are behind by a measly 4%.
An opponent who will fire the turn and river on a pure bluff or "bad value bet" as you describe it, is not a description of a normal player. When your hand does hold up, you frequently will only win one bet from your opponent, and he'll make you pay two when you are behind much more often. Position, Position, Position.
It's easy to see here that being ahead 50% of the time on the turn doesn't mean you will be ahead 50% of the time on the river.
Naturally, when a jack hits on the river you pretty much have to fold or bluff. When the flush card comes, you have to make another tough read. If he spikes an overcard, you have no information with which to make a decision.
I'm happy to see that he was indeed bluffing, but make sure that you don't reinforce bad habits with good results. Remember that the results don't matter, as long as you are always making the correct decision.
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