[Solitare]

[ QUOTE ]
If my read on the UTG+1 is that he is a very aggressive player, raising a lot of pots and pushing in situations like this when he is desperate it is a much easier call, because I'm likely ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also strongly recommend that you get PokerStove or a similar hand analysis tool.

With PokerStove, plug in a hand range you think your villain might be playing and compare that to your hand. Do this often, it will be illuminating.

Let's look at your example. Let's say that your villain is very aggressive and his range for his all-in is any pair, any two broadway cards, and aces down to A7s/A7o. Against this range you are not a slight favorite in the coinflip but a slight dog, 52% to 48%.

Yes, you are ahead of most of the hands in that range. The problem is that the ones that you are behind, you are way behind. Averaging them all out, and you are an underdog.

And I think your situation is worse, as I think someone pushing all-in UTG, even someone desperate, will have a tighter range than that.