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Old 08-23-2005, 01:15 PM
MtSmalls MtSmalls is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: CO
Posts: 714
Default Re: Will Bush Drop into the 30s?

After posting the results from the ARG poll that only 33% of Americans approved of the Bush's handling of the economy, your one line retort was: "That just shows how ignorant the average American is".

I asked what you liked about the economy, since you thought the "average American" was clearly wrong/misguided/misinformed.

True, the BLS measure of Unemployment is currently 5%. However, embedded in that statistic (as I pointed out in the substantive portion of my reply) is that labor participation in the U.S. is lower today than it was 5 years ago. That is when Clinton left office, according to the BLS ( BLS Link labor force participation peaked at just over 67%. Today it stands at 66%. So, if you were to include that portion of the population that are of working age and eligible to work, but are no longer seeking a job, unemployment would be over 6%. When Clinton left office, with a MILLION more participants in the labor pool, unemployment was 4%.

Total US Employment may be higher than five years ago, but not as a percentage of the US population. That is natural growth in the working age population may have increased the total number of job holders, but Total US Population/Job holders is 2% less now than five years ago.

BLS Link 2%* roughly 300 million is SIX Million less...

Interest rates and core inflation are both higher now than last year, let alone 40 year lows. The last CPI number, end of July 2005, showed a year over year rate of 3.2%. In 1997 and 1998 year over year CPI changes were 1.7 and 1.6 percent, or HALF of last year's.

Annual Average Wage Growth from 2001 to 2004:
3.3%, 3.1%, 1.7%, 2.6%.
CPI Change from 2001 to 2004
1.5%, 2.4%, 1.9%, 3.4%
REAL Wage Growth:
1.8%, 0.7%, -0.2%, -0.8%.

I don't know about you, but I LOVE negative wage growth, coupled with rising interest rates and rising unemployment.
(Is that substantive enough???)
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