Re: 50/100 Commerce River Decision-Results
Sam,
Villain most likely thinks I have ak or some other big card combination if I check the flop. I'm not sure if villian knows my wide range of raising hands even though I haven't raised much so far this session and this is the first time we have played 50/100 together
Results
No doubt I played this hand pretty bad that is why I posted the hand.
The turn, I think a raise of 2500-3000 more in instead of 2k more would of been better even though my 2k raise gave villian about 2.5/1 odds to call for his probably draw and of course gave him plenty of room to make an all in move.
The river is where I thought some discussion would be given the way the hand played out-
villian has about 6k left and the pot is 7300
1)I think an all in given the board pairing is bad for obvious reasons
2)a bet from 3k-5k imo is questionable because given my read of villian's hand ranges, he will only push with a boat and I will be forced to call. I can't see him calling a reraise on the turn with an ace (villian def. reraises pf with ak) and calling a value bet on the river.
If he had A2 he got counterfitted
A4 filled up
A5 is one hand he may call
As I said earlier, villian pushes a 3 prob. 90+% of the time.
3)A small bet of say 1500-2000: Something to consider?
He may call with any hand I beat getting 4.5 to 1
He will push with any boat putting me in a tough spot
He may push (possible but not that high of a percentage) with a missed flush draw, etc. putting me in a tough spot
4) check behind since most likely villian will fold any hand I beat and of course could jeopardize my stack if he filled up (very possible given villian's tendencies)
Of course, I lose some value against the hands I beat and he calls (even though I think in this case there aren't that many hands)
I decided to check riv but I still don't know what the best ev play would be.
Villian didn't show but he mentioned hearts
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