Re: 50/100 Commerce River Decision
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I felt villian range on the turn after his 2000 call was:
flush draw-highly likely as I have seen him miniraise with draws before
two pair, set
less likely Ace (not with flush draw since ace of hearts fell on turn)
small chance 3 (I think he pushes with a 3)
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Disclaimer: I'll probably never play this high in my life, but fwiw...
I think you have to go with your gut here on the river.
Checking behind him is only a small mistake, but if you have a good reason to think the river boated him and he's capable of checking it for a raise - and you bet and then call a push and get stacked, that is a big mistake. You did think he might have called your turn bet to try to fill up with 2 pr or a set...and the river paired the board! And I just hate the value bet, fold to a push line...I don't get it.
I'd agree with others that if your postflop play was different you'd have a better idea what to do on the river.
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