[Hopey]

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Dawson is a borderline guy for me. Way too much time at RF with subpar offense. Not a very good on base guy. Plus he wasn't clutch. :P

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He had a cannon for an arm and was very quick when he was younger. However, playing on the rock-hard astroturf in Montreal killed his knees, and slowed him down for the last 1/2 of his career. A good portion of his career was spent playing hurt. Had he not spent so many years in Montreal, he might have reached 3000 hits and would have been a HOF shoo-in. Instead, he's close, but not quite good enough.

His numbers aren't quite as good as Jim Rice's numbers (and Rice played fewer years). So if Rice isn't able to get voted in, it's hard to make an argument for Dawson.

I wonder if Dawson would have gotten a little more consideration had he retired after the '93 season, as opposed to hanging in until '96? Playing those three extra years brought down his lifetime BA, SLG, and OBP. It also pushed back his eligibility 3 years, and square into the long-ball era. 1998 was the year of McGwire and Sosa's HR record race, but the long ball hadn't been cheapened as much as would come to be in subsequent years.