[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted a similar thread a few weeks ago, about my unsuccessful continuation betting system. I've developed a sort of "session strategy" since then that has been quite successful.

For the first 50 hands or so, do not continuation bet much (less than 50%). At this time, other players like to think that every flop bet from you is a steal, and you'll get lots of callers.

During these hands, show down only a few, and make sure that they are strong hands - this gives you a sort of credibility at the table.

After showing that "you only value bet", continuation betting will be at least 2x as successful, because now your opponents will have switched to the mindset of "if he's betting, he's got it!"

It's funny how you are often just placed into category A (always bluffing) or category B(bets good hands); if you can be aware of your standing in this respect, you will be much more successful in terms of these missed AK, AQ, AJ, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is very bad advice. You make so much money at SSNL simply by value betting. The very last thing you want opponents to do is to always correctly fold to your made hands.

Your continuation bets are "bluffs" that are profitable in a vacuum. But what makes them REALLY +EV is that they make your made hands profitable.

That's why I think all this advice to "stop C-betting" is very bad. You are horrendously predictable if you tend to check draw-heavy boards with AK unimproved, but bet them with an overpair/top-pair.

Sometimes it frustrates me that my AK is called a lot on the 862r flop.

But then I think about all the pots I take with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when I CB the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop, because the player with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folds to my obvious A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I'm also curious how the OP comes to the conclusion that CBs are losing him money. It sounds like a very hard datamining problem. For instance, you cannot consider the bet in a vacuum (i.e. how often bets are called and you later gave up the pot), because if you are betting 2/3 pot (for instance), you do not need to win even half of the pots for the move to be profitable.

In short, I need a lot more data (sample sizes, methods, etc) before I'm going to blanketly accept the premise that the CBs are losing money.