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Old 05-16-2006, 11:48 AM
DWarrior DWarrior is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: stealing your food
Posts: 3,106
Default Re: continuation bets losing money, how do I adjust?

c-betting into 4 players, that's something I used to do.

The math for this is really simple:

if you bet 2/3 pot, then the odds of you winning the pot, 1, must be p and the odds of you getting called (and losing) 2/3 are 1-p.

So the formula is:

1p=2/3(1-p)

p=.4 <- villains must fold 40% for this to be break even.

To figure out how often each villain must fold to achieve .4 is a function:

x^v=.4, where v is # of villains and x is their odds to fold,

x=.4^(1/v)

for 1 opponent: x=.4
for 2 opponents: x=.63
for 3 opponents: x=.74
for 4 opponents: x=.80
for 5 opponents: x=.83

you can see that with 3 opponents, they each have to fold 75% of the time for this to be break even, and for 4 they each have to fold 80% of the time.

Some of these times you will outdraw them, or maybe you'll have positional advantage, so maybe sometimes you can c-bet into 3 opponents, but c-betting into 4 opponents looks suicidal, at least from a mathematical point.

That being said, my flop aggression is 5, which indicates that I c-bet way too much. I almost always c-bet 1 or 2 opponents and never c-bet into 3+.
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