Re: continuation bets losing money, how do I adjust?
c-betting into 4 players, that's something I used to do.
The math for this is really simple:
if you bet 2/3 pot, then the odds of you winning the pot, 1, must be p and the odds of you getting called (and losing) 2/3 are 1-p.
So the formula is:
1p=2/3(1-p)
p=.4 <- villains must fold 40% for this to be break even.
To figure out how often each villain must fold to achieve .4 is a function:
x^v=.4, where v is # of villains and x is their odds to fold,
x=.4^(1/v)
for 1 opponent: x=.4
for 2 opponents: x=.63
for 3 opponents: x=.74
for 4 opponents: x=.80
for 5 opponents: x=.83
you can see that with 3 opponents, they each have to fold 75% of the time for this to be break even, and for 4 they each have to fold 80% of the time.
Some of these times you will outdraw them, or maybe you'll have positional advantage, so maybe sometimes you can c-bet into 3 opponents, but c-betting into 4 opponents looks suicidal, at least from a mathematical point.
That being said, my flop aggression is 5, which indicates that I c-bet way too much. I almost always c-bet 1 or 2 opponents and never c-bet into 3+.
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