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Old 01-11-2006, 11:55 AM
Bco1/75 Bco1/75 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 381
Default FOLD EQUITY

i bet someone has or allready has mentioned but pushing with a draw is fine, but you need to have FOLD EQUITY. Which is the chance that you will win the pot right there if everyone folds. Calling an all in bet with a draw is ALMOST always -EV (fold equity = 0). Example on your hand:

When the flop action gets to you there is 11.10 in the pot and you have $17.5 left. By pushing you are announcing I have a flush or nut flush draw. You need to estimate the chances you opponents will fold. Here I say they are low say 20%....Thus:
20% of the time you will win $11.10
80% of the time you will have a show down. To make it simple assume your A is no good. In that you will catch your flush 36% of the time (if no one else has hearts, I assume that there are at least one heart in each players hand so it would actually be 28%, 7 outs) 25.6% of the time you win $46.10 and 54.4% you will lose $17.5
Resulting in:
$11.10 (.2)+$46.10(.256)-$17.5(.544)= +$4.5


Of course you will never get someone to lay down a flush like this thus fold equity is probally much less than 20%.
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