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Old 01-10-2006, 09:34 PM
epdaws epdaws is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: 2up, 2 to play
Posts: 4,260
Default Re: Is it ever correct to go all in on a draw?

First of all, never min-raise again. Ever. It made me spew my homemade Bailey's all over the monitor when I saw that.

There are plenty of occasions where pushing all in on a draw is optimal, but this situation is not one of them, and here's a breakdown:

1) You've got one card to come and, ostensibly, 12 outs. You're roughly a 3:1 dog, and you've got to put your last $13 in to win $38, so you're getting just less than 3:1. This play is marginally -expected value.

2) When you put all your money in on a draw, it's best to be the first one in to the middle, so you gain folding equity. For example, you flop an open-ended straight flush draw. You feel safe in counting 15 outs, so you're about 57 percent to hit a winning hand. Your opponent is showing aggression. By pushing all in, you make a +expected value play because he's going to fold a lot of the time, and you'll take down the pot as is, and when he does call, you're roughly a coin flip to win anyway.

3) Calling all in on a draw with one to come just sucks. As the Great One once said, "Donkeys Alwasy Draw."

Hope that helps.
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